Jeffrey Gassen
Risk perception and, as a result, actions to prevent illness are frequently out of sync with actual infection, morbidity, and mortality risks. When people have unrealistic optimism, they assume that their own outcomes will be better than those of others in the same risk category. If the benefits of overconfidence, such as psychological resilience, outweigh the risks, natural selection may favor it. However, just because optimism biases may have provided evolutionary benefits in the past does not mean they are always optimum.Risk perception and, as a result, actions to prevent illness are frequently out of sync with actual infection, morbidity, and mortality risks. When people have unrealistic optimism, they assume that their own outcomes will be better than those of others in the same risk category. If the benefits of overconfidence, such as psychological resilience, outweigh the risks, natural selection may favor it. However, just because optimism biases may have provided evolutionary benefits in the past does not mean they are always optimum.